BelVis EDM features standard forecasting methods: load profile data extrapolation, comparison day methods with influencing variables, synthetic forecast, reference profile forecast, formula-based forecast, and more. For more complex requirements and advanced objectives, BelVis offers a highly efficient forecasting tool by way of the add-on module BelVis PRO, which uses high-order algorithms. These include Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and methods such as Adaptive Logic Networks (ALN), fuzzy and neuro-fuzzy methods as well as proven methods such as ARIMAX and regression analysis, Kalman and exponential smoothing.
The outstanding features of BelVis PRO include the high quality of its forecasting and its extremely fast calculation speed under the ANN and ALN methods. The ANN method in use has been patented, thus affording KISTERS scope for further optimisation and upgrades at any time.
BelVis PRO provides a forecast library featuring all methods common on the market today, and allows them to be used as alternatives to one another or in parallel.
Trained on the basis of historic data, BelVis PRO can deliver the optimum projection for both consumption and price data. Naturally, BelVis PRO helps with the selection of the relevant influencing variables and makes a clear statement about the quality of the results. The different forecasting methods are typically used to estimate the distribution load over several time levels. The sequence is dictated by customer size, and the forecast may either apply to single customers or entire groups of customers (clusters). One possible arrangement (with increasing accuracy) is to divide the methods into initial forecast, medium-term forecast and short-term forecast. In BelVis, these and any number of other forecast levels can be managed in their own time series. This also enables subsequent analysis of the predictive quality of the forecasting methods applied to the different planning intervals. Of course, the arrangement may be configured as desired by the user.
To summarise: when the competition gets tough, BelVis PRO provides the edge.
